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This article is about current news and luxury watches. The images and content of the article were created using AI and then rewritten by an editor.
Have you ever felt that the price of Rolex has stopped falling recently?
After the post-COVID frenzy subsided in 2023-24, the pre-owned luxury watch market is expected to decline only slightly, by an average of -0.3%, in the April-June quarter of 2025. The market is showing signs of stabilization overall, led by "blue-chip" brands such as Rolex, Patek Philippe, Cartier, and Omega.
This time, we will explain "what's happening now" and "how to prepare for the next one" from the perspectives of both beginners and collectors. By the time you finish reading, you will have acquired a "sense for numbers" that will be useful for making future buying and selling decisions.
*This is an AI-generated image.
What is Blue Chip?
Originally a term referring to stable companies known as "blue-chip stocks" in the stock market, in the watch industry it means "a brand that is always in high demand, is liquid, and is unlikely to lose value."
- Value stability : Even in economic downturns, the decline is small and the value continues to rise over the long term.
- Liquidity : Demand is so strong that dealers around the world can immediately cash out
- Representative brands : Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Cartier, Omega, etc.
"Blue chip brands are the best in watches, combining both asset value and ease of sale. "
Latest Trends in the Used Watch Market [Q2 2025]
"The average price decline in the April-June period was -0.3% , the slowest decline in the last three years." — Hodinkee Business News (2025-07-14)According to a joint report by Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts, the price index has been declining for 13 consecutive quarters, but is showing a slowdown. This is due to the concentration of demand in "blue chip" brands . Inventory levels for used Rolexes have normalized, and sell-through rates have improved. Cartier's "Tank" and "Santos" series increased by 0.9%, while Patek Philippe is performing well at +1.1% .
| brand | Average price fluctuation | Main model examples |
|---|---|---|
| Rolex | -0.2% | Submariner/GMT-Master II |
| Patek Philippe | +1.1% | Nautilus/Aquanaut |
| Cartier | +0.9% | Tank/Santos |
| omega | -0.1% | Speedmaster |
| Audemars Piguet | -1.3% | Royal Oak |
Impact of tariff and retail price revisions on the secondhand market
As of July 2025, there are fears that additional tariffs of up to 31% will be imposed on Swiss-made watches . Many manufacturers have raised their North American retail prices by 2-10% , narrowing the price gap between new and used watches.
- People avoid new products → people turn to used products → support used prices
- Collectors prioritize "physical possession" in consideration of exchange rate and customs risks
- Beginners are increasingly being required to check the "actual price before the price increase"
*This is an AI-generated image.
The "stable model" that beginners should aim for and the budget
If it's your first time buying one, the two key conditions are "large circulation x stable price movement" . Specifically...
- Rolex Explorer I : There is plenty of inventory on the market, and the price has remained almost flat for the past year.
- Omega Seamaster 300 : Used watches are about 15-20% cheaper than new ones, and there is also an excellent service system in place.
- Cartier Tank Must : Highly popular with both men and women, and highly stable.
*This is an AI-generated image.
Rare pieces that collectors are interested in and long-term investment potential
From a collector's perspective, discontinued iconic designs such as the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711 and Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15202 , whose supply is being limited, remain core assets. However, it is important to always check the two indicators of trading volume x average spread to measure liquidity .
Also, there are cases like the Grand Seiko "Shirakaba" SLGH005 where the price increase rate is greater than the brand rating , and it's fun to look for the next blue chip candidate. This is the moment when you feel like "This is the joy of being a collector!"
*This is an AI-generated image.
How will the market move in the future? — Three scenarios
- Scenario 1: Mild recovery : Additional tariffs are eased and second-hand prices could rise 0-2% in 2026.
- Scenario 2: Flat : Tariffs will remain unchanged and prices will likely remain in the range of -1 to +1%.
- Scenario 3: Further decline : Demand will decline due to a worsening macroeconomic situation, and prices could fall by -3 to -5% in 2026.
Summary: Use numbers to your advantage and live a smart and fun time-keeping life
Looking back at the main points of this article...
- Average decline rate for Q2 2025 is -0.3%, showing signs of stabilization
- Blue chip brands lead the market
- Tariffs and retail price hikes prop up second-hand market
- Beginners can gain experience with popular staples that have "slow price movements"
- Collectors are looking for rare pieces and the next blue chip candidate
- Commit Ginza Columnist
Related links: Rolex List / Patek Philippe List / Audemars Piguet List
FAQ
- Q1. If I were to buy a used watch for the first time, what should I look at first?
- Check your inventory volume and average spread (ask price - buy price).
- Q2. Can the asset value be maintained if I buy it second-hand?
- Blue chip brands and limited production models have the potential to maintain or increase in value.
- Q3. Will the prices of used goods in Japan also increase if tariffs increase?
- Models with a high parallel import ratio are more susceptible to the effects and there is room for prices to rise.
- Q4. How much does service history affect price?
- For Rolex and Patek Philippe, there may be price differences depending on whether or not an original service certificate is provided.
