[Seto Kansei] How Has the US Tariff Impacted the Pre-Owned Market? | Luxury Watch Trends 2025 | No. 43

Have you ever thought, "The market for second-hand goods has been fluctuating so much lately that I can't keep up..."? Following the announcement and implementation of the 39% tariff on Swiss goods by the US in August, the secondary market suddenly became heated, but then quickly calmed down. Looking back at the figures, we'll summarize from a practical perspective how we should prepare for the future. Frankly, I was surprised by the sales trends in such a short period of time.

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Overview and impact of the 39% US tariff on Switzerland

On August 7th, the United States raised import tariffs on Swiss products to 39% . This includes watches, and the sudden rise in import costs has had a direct impact on sales prices and inventory strategies. The rush to supply products before the implementation, combined with price recalculation after the implementation, has significantly distorted short-term supply and demand. The tariffs were raised from 10% in April, and it has been confirmed that they will take effect simultaneously in both Switzerland and the United States on the implementation date.

• What affects it: Many imports from Switzerland (medicines reportedly excluded)
• Industry impact: As the US is one of the largest markets for Swiss watches, the degree of price pass-through will affect profitability.
• Negotiation status: Switzerland continues diplomatic negotiations while seeking ways to reduce or avoid tariffs

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Short-term reaction in the used market: price, listings, and sales surge

Immediately after the announcement, demand concentrated on high-end models . According to Everywatch statistics, sales of pre-owned Patek Philippes during the week of the announcement doubled from $43 million the previous week to $87 million . Pre-owned Rolex sales also increased from $107 million to $123 million . Furthermore, during the week of August 4-10, which included the actual sale, sales of pre-owned Rolexes increased to $140 million (+14%) .

This increase has also spread to high-end brands such as Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille, and Chopard, while mid-range brands such as Cartier have seen relatively little fluctuation. This is a real pleasure for watch fans.

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Rebound from the end of August: Trading volume fell 41% in the US and Hong Kong, and average prices fell 14%

After a last-minute rush, trading volume fell 41% and average prices fell 14% by the end of the month (both in the US compared to the previous week). Hong Kong was also weak, primarily due to buyers' backlash against soaring prices and a slowdown in the pace of new listings by sellers. The market swung from a surge to a correction in a short period of time.

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Swiss watch exports: August -16.5%, -23.9% to the US, -35.5% to China

According to August statistics from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), watch exports were down 16.5% compared to the same month last year. Of the major markets, exports to the United States were down 23.9% and to mainland China were down 35.5% , with a large decline. Cumulative exports from January to August were CHF 17 billion (-1.0%) . Tariffs were brought forward in April and July, and this suggests a rebound decline.

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Trends by brand and key points of representative models

Rolex

• Used sales grew between the announcement and implementation period. Popular models include the Daytona (Ref. 126500LN), Submariner (Ref. 126610LN), and GMT-Master II (Ref. 126710 series/126720 series).
• Price adjustments in the US are underway by brand and retailer, and there have been reported cases of price increases since the initial 10% tariff.

Patek Philippe

• Used sales doubled during the announcement week. Demand for sports models such as the Aquanaut (5167/5164) and Nautilus (5711/5811) accelerated.
• Reports of up to 15% retail price hikes in the US as part of tariff response.

Audemars Piguet/Richard Mille

• Sales growth centered on the high-end range, driven by Royal Oak and some Richard Mille references.

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Practical points for different buyers: beginners and collectors

For beginners

• US prices are distorted by the dual factors of price revisions and tariffs. Compare "total payment amount" while also looking at domestic market prices and exchange rates.
• Classic references have high liquidity and are advantageous when selling in the future. The presence or absence of a box and warranty card will affect the price.
• Before purchasing, check the origin and condition of the stock at a trusted store. This thoroughness will give you peace of mind.

For collectors

• Short-term surge → After adjustment, distortions occur in individual stocks . Screening out stocks in the mid-price range that did not rise easily during the announcement week and stocks that overreacted after the implementation.
• Beware of US-only brand price revisions and supply allocation changes. Monitor parallel pricing and regional differences.
• Individuals with wide primary and secondary spreads are scrutinized for potential future convergence (arbitrage).

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Future outlook: price revisions, inventory strategies, and negotiations

Short-term volatility has subsided. Several brands, including the largest, have decided to raise prices in the US or are considering doing so. Prices vary in Japanese stores due to differences in exchange rates, shipping, insurance, and procurement routes, so regional price differences are expected to continue for the time being. Assumptions may change if negotiations progress.

• It has been reported that brands (Blancpain, Patek Philippe, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Cartier, etc.) are revising their US retail prices.
• Switzerland is diplomatically seeking to ease or revise tariffs, but the outcome is uncertain.
• Risks: Sudden changes in exchange rates, fluctuations in gold prices, geopolitical events. Prompt inventory rotation and hedging are key.

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Summary: Read the numbers and act swiftly

• Immediately after the announcement, sales surged, mainly in the high-end segment, but then corrected after implementation.
• Swiss watch exports fell sharply in August, with weak demand for the US and China.
• Price revisions in the US. Pay attention to price differences between countries and sales channels.

The market is fast-moving, but if you know the numbers, it's easy to respond. In the short term, we focus on identifying distortions, and in the medium term, we predict price revisions and supply allocations. At Commit Ginza, we compare both primary and secondary information and provide thorough proposals that include condition guarantees and exit value .

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FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. How long will the 39% tariff last?

A. Negotiations are ongoing, but it is unclear when they will end. The Swiss side is lobbying for tariff relief.

Q2. Is now the time to buy?

A. After a short-term adjustment, price distortions tend to remain for individual stocks. Compare the risk and exit point based on the model number, condition, and whether or not it comes with accessories. Also check US price revisions and exchange rates.

Q3. Which brands are adjusting their prices?

A. In the United States, there have been reports of brands such as Blancpain, Patek Philippe, Jaeger-LeCoultre, and Cartier raising their prices.

Q4. Will this affect prices in Japan?

A. Direct tariffs are imposed on goods bound for the US, but they can also affect domestic prices due to parallel inventory and changes in international supply and demand. Differences in distribution channels and exchange rates are reflected in price formation.

Q5. How serious is the decline in export statistics?

A. August was down 16.5% compared to the same month last year. Major markets were weak, with the US down 23.9% and China down 35.5%, and the year-to-date figure is down 1.0%.

Reference information

• Implementation and Overview of the 39% Tariff: Hodinkee “39% Tariff on Swiss Imports, Including Watches, Is Now In Effect”
• Secondhand market data (Everywatch): Hodinkee “Secondhand Watch Market Prices and Listings Jumped After Tariffs Announced”
• Swiss watch exports (August report): FH “Swiss watchmaking in August 2025” PDF, statistics page
• Swiss diplomatic and negotiation coverage: Financial Times, Reuters, etc.
• Price revision trends in the US: Watch various media (e.g., Patek US price updates)