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Kenji
Inspector, we have a problem.
Photos of the new watch, which was supposed to be private until tomorrow night, are already out on an overseas watch account.
Photos of the new watch, which was supposed to be private until tomorrow night, are already out on an overseas watch account.
Inspector
The watch itself is still in the display room.
It wasn't the watch that was stolen, but the order of its release.
It wasn't the watch that was stolen, but the order of its release.
Kenji
The pudding in my fridge also often disappears before its "release."
Inspector
That's not an information leak; it's probably your own mismanagement for not writing your name on it.
CASE FILE 33: A Release Faster Than the Full Moon
- Incident Discovery: At 9:18 PM, photos of a prototype moon phase watch, still unreleased, were leaked to an overseas watch account.
- The prototype watch itself remained in the photography studio on the 6th floor.
- A tiny dent at the 7 o'clock position and a small speck of dust on the dial visible in the photo confirmed it was the same prototype.
- The watch had been stopped for two weeks. In the confirmation photo taken at 6:12 PM the previous day, the moon phase display was still near the new moon.
- However, in the leaked photo, the moon phase almost perfectly matched tonight's full moon.
- Three individuals had access to the photography data and the materials for publication.
① Three Suspects: One with Access to the Camera, Another with Access to the Publish Button
Suspect A: Kohei Shiraishi
44 years old, Head of Night Security
Managed visitors at the 1st-floor reception after 8:30 PM. Continuous footage of him exists on reception cameras and entry logs.
Suspect B: Nao Morikawa
29 years old, Photography Assistant
Continuously exporting product videos in the 7th-floor editing room. Operation history and colleague confirmations exist.
Suspect C: Reiji Makabe
38 years old, Head of Digital Public Relations
Claimed, "The photos were taken yesterday and scheduled for release. I haven't touched the watch or camera tonight."
Kenji
Security, photography, publication.
It feels like everyone holds a key to a different door.
It feels like everyone holds a key to a different door.
Inspector
That's why we don't look at the keyhole, but inside the picture.
This time, the moon on the dial is the witness.
This time, the moon on the dial is the witness.
② Makabe's Testimony: "The leaked photos are those I took yesterday for a scheduled post."
Makabe's Testimony:
"The photoshoot finished yesterday evening. The prototype watch has been stopped for about two weeks, and the moon phase hasn't been set. Last night, I uploaded the images to the scheduled posting system. Tonight, I was participating in an online meeting and did not enter the studio on the 6th floor. Perhaps someone extracted the scheduled data?"
"The photoshoot finished yesterday evening. The prototype watch has been stopped for about two weeks, and the moon phase hasn't been set. Last night, I uploaded the images to the scheduled posting system. Tonight, I was participating in an online meeting and did not enter the studio on the 6th floor. Perhaps someone extracted the scheduled data?"
Kenji
"Taken yesterday," "Didn't enter tonight," "Watch wasn't set."
That's a very strong testimony, piled up three layers deep.
That's a very strong testimony, piled up three layers deep.
Inspector
If it's three layers deep, the sound will be loud when it collapses.
③ A Moon Phase is a Display that Recreates the "Moon in the Sky" with Gears
Inspector
A moon phase is a mechanism that displays the waxing and waning of the moon on the dial.
In a common system, a 59-tooth disc with two moons advances one tooth every 24 hours, representing one lunar phase cycle in approximately 29.5 days.
In a common system, a 59-tooth disc with two moons advances one tooth every 24 hours, representing one lunar phase cycle in approximately 29.5 days.
Kenji
So, a super slow-moving moon lives inside the dial.
Inspector
However, it's not a sensor looking at the sky.
If the watch stops, a typical mechanical moon phase also stops at that position and doesn't automatically catch up to the real moon.
If the watch stops, a typical mechanical moon phase also stops at that position and doesn't automatically catch up to the real moon.
Typical display: 59 teeth ÷ 2 moons = 29.5 days / 1 cycle
The actual average synodic month is approximately 29.53059 days. In the traditional 29.5-day system, the difference gradually accumulates, resulting in a discrepancy of about 1 day in approximately 2 years and 7 months to 3 years.
What a Moon Phase Represents and What It Doesn't
| What can be confirmed | What cannot be confirmed alone |
|---|---|
| Approximate moon phase advanced from a set reference | Current location like GPS or precise astronomical time |
| Difference in display position from past photos | Who adjusted it and when |
| Mechanical property that display does not advance when stopped | Identifying a photo's date solely by the display matching |
④ The Previous Day, 6:12 PM: The Watch Was Stopped, and the Moon Phase Was "Near New Moon"
Record Remaining at the End of Photography the Previous Day
| Watch Condition | Stopped for two weeks. Hour and minute hands stationary near 10:10. |
|---|---|
| Moon Phase Display | Near new moon, with the moon mostly hidden. |
| Operating Rules | No winding, time setting, or calendar correction as it was before formal photography. |
| Evidence | Full view photo at 6:12 PM, close-up contact sheet, completion checklist. |
Kenji
For two weeks, both the time and the moon were stopped.
That's a pretty strict "hands-off operation."
That's a pretty strict "hands-off operation."
Inspector
And the display near the new moon can be confirmed even in the last photo from the day before.
This will be our reference point.
This will be our reference point.
⑤ Only the Leaked Photo from 9:18 PM Showed "Tonight's Full Moon"
High-Resolution Photo Leaked Externally
| Watch Individual | Tiny dent at 7 o'clock and dust on the dial matched, identified as the prototype in the studio. |
|---|---|
| Moon Phase Display | Near full moon, with the moon visible in the center of the aperture. |
| Moon Tonight | Astronomical information also indicated a night close to a full moon. |
| Makabe's Explanation | "Photos were taken the day before. The watch was not adjusted." |
Clue for the Reader:
The same stopped watch, which was near the new moon in the final photo at 6:12 PM the previous day. If only the leaked photo shows it near the full moon, there is a significant contradiction in the explanation that "the photos taken the day before were simply uploaded for scheduled release."
The same stopped watch, which was near the new moon in the final photo at 6:12 PM the previous day. If only the leaked photo shows it near the full moon, there is a significant contradiction in the explanation that "the photos taken the day before were simply uploaded for scheduled release."
Kenji
I understand. It matches tonight's moon.
So, it's proof someone touched it tonight!
So, it's proof someone touched it tonight!
⑥ However, "Perfectly Matching Tonight's Moon" Alone Is Not Proof of Recent Handling
Inspector
Almost, but that conclusion is premature.
If correctly set and the watch continues to run, the moon phase tracks the lunar cycle without daily adjustment. The fact that it matches tonight is not, in itself, abnormal.
If correctly set and the watch continues to run, the moon phase tracks the lunar cycle without daily adjustment. The fact that it matches tonight is not, in itself, abnormal.
Kenji
Isn't it suspicious if the moon matches?
Inspector
What's suspicious is that the same watch, which was stopped near the new moon in yesterday's record, is showing a full moon in another photo supposedly taken yesterday.
However, manual correction or image manipulation are also possibilities. The moon phase provides a reason to be suspicious, but it doesn't reveal the culprit's name.
However, manual correction or image manipulation are also possibilities. The moon phase provides a reason to be suspicious, but it doesn't reveal the culprit's name.
Three Cautions to Prevent Jumping to Conclusions
- Advances automatically when running: It's not a display that needs to be set manually every day.
- Similar displays repeat approximately every 29.5 days: The moon phase alone cannot be used as a timestamp for a photo.
- Manual correction is possible: The display alone cannot determine the time or person of operation.
⑦ RAW Sequence, Lighting Log, Connection History: The Photo Was Taken "Tonight"
Records Not Explained by Image Manipulation Alone
| Camera RAW Sequence | The original RAW of the leaked photo exists between test images taken at 8:45:51 PM and 8:47:03 PM. |
|---|---|
| Strobe Control History | The lights in the 6th-floor studio flashed three times around 8:46 PM. |
| Camera Connection | At the same time, Makabe's work terminal connected wirelessly to the studio camera. |
| External Transmission | At 8:49 PM, a file hash matching the image transferred from the same terminal to the leak destination was confirmed. |
| Online Meeting | Makabe's terminal was connected, but both camera and audio were off from 8:39 PM to 9:02 PM. |
Kenji
So, he was in the meeting, but that wasn't proof he was in front of the screen.
Inspector
"Connected" and "present" are similar but different things.
And even if you only change the EXIF date, the RAW sequence and records from peripheral devices won't be erased.
And even if you only change the EXIF date, the RAW sequence and records from peripheral devices won't be erased.
⑧ The Moon Phase Adjustment Pin Was Found in Makabe's Card Case
Confirmation of Physical Evidence
- The special adjustment pin that should have been in the prototype watch's accompanying box was missing.
- An adjustment pin of the same type was found inside Makabe's black leather card case.
- The pin had dark blue velvet fibers attached, consistent with the lining of the accompanying box.
- New pressure marks were found around the moon phase corrector on the side of the watch case.
- Makabe initially explained, "I don't know why it was in my card case."
Kenji
He pulls out a business card, and a stick to move the moon comes out.
That's a pretty special card case.
That's a pretty special card case.
Inspector
It's certainly not standard equipment for sales.
⑨ Crime Recreation: Makabe Re-photographed After Setting to "Tonight's Full Moon"
Makabe's Actual Movements
- While still participating in the online meeting, he turned off his camera and audio, then took his terminal and moved to the 6th-floor studio.
- He took the adjustment pin from the accompanying box and advanced the moon phase of the stopped prototype watch to near the full moon.
- He photographed the visually appealing "full moon dial" at 8:46 PM for public release.
- He changed the photo's timestamp from the RAW image to the previous day.
- He sent it to an overseas watch account, attempting to make it appear as if "yesterday's scheduled material was leaked."
- However, the contact sheet from the previous day, RAW sequence, lighting log, connection history, and the adjustment pin all indicated tonight's re-photography.
Inspector
Mr. Makabe, to make the leaked photo look more appealing, specifically adjusted the display to tonight's full moon.
That extra effort to make the photo look good undermined his explanation of "taken yesterday."
That extra effort to make the photo look good undermined his explanation of "taken yesterday."
Kenji
So, by chasing "the perfect shot," the evidence itself became high-resolution.
⑩ The Leaker: Reiji Makabe, Head of Digital Public Relations
What became full tonight wasn't the moon, but the "transmission history."
Inspector: "Mr. Makabe. The leaked photo isn't from yesterday. You re-shot and sent it from this studio tonight."
Inspector
In the final photo from the previous day, the watch was stopped, and the moon phase was near the new moon.
However, in the leaked image, the same piece shows a phase near the full moon. If this were the only evidence, there could be possibilities of correction or manipulation.
But the original RAW was in tonight's sequence, the lights flashed at the same time, and your terminal was connected to the camera. Furthermore, the image was sent externally from that terminal, and the adjustment pin was in your card case.
The questions raised by the moon phase were transformed into answers by digital records and physical evidence.
However, in the leaked image, the same piece shows a phase near the full moon. If this were the only evidence, there could be possibilities of correction or manipulation.
But the original RAW was in tonight's sequence, the lights flashed at the same time, and your terminal was connected to the camera. Furthermore, the image was sent externally from that terminal, and the adjustment pin was in your card case.
The questions raised by the moon phase were transformed into answers by digital records and physical evidence.
Makabe's Confession:
"I was told that the reaction to the new product was weak, and I felt anxious. I thought that if I gave the photos to an overseas account first, it would generate buzz. The moon was barely visible in yesterday's photos, and it didn't look good. So I returned to the studio tonight, adjusted it to the full moon, and re-shot it. I thought I could get away with it by making it seem like the scheduled material had been leaked."
"I was told that the reaction to the new product was weak, and I felt anxious. I thought that if I gave the photos to an overseas account first, it would generate buzz. The moon was barely visible in yesterday's photos, and it didn't look good. So I returned to the studio tonight, adjusted it to the full moon, and re-shot it. I thought I could get away with it by making it seem like the scheduled material had been leaked."
Kenji
He intended to create buzz, but instead, he created a case.
Inspector
Pre-release information, once out, cannot be reeled back in.
It should be handled with more care than the hands of a clock.
It should be handled with more care than the hands of a clock.
⑪ After the Incident, Kenji Starts a "Moon Phase Display" with Dorayaki
Kenji
Look! If you eat a round dorayaki little by little, you can recreate the new moon, crescent moon, and even the half-moon.
Inspector
In your case, the cycle from full moon to new moon is only two minutes.
Kenji
It's a high-beat movement.
Inspector
(That's not a mechanism; it's just fast eating...)
Conclusion: The Moon Phase Revealed the Contradiction of Calling a "Tonight's Photo" a "Yesterday's Photo"
Inspector
The moon phase is a beautiful, complex mechanism that displays the waxing and waning of the moon using gears. If correctly set and the watch is running, the display advances without daily adjustment.
Therefore, the fact that "it matches tonight's moon" alone does not mean it was recently operated.
What was crucial in this case was that the same piece, which was stopped near the new moon in the last record from the previous day, showed a phase near the full moon in the leaked photo, which was claimed to have been "taken the day before."
Even so, the display alone cannot rule out correction, image manipulation, or a coincidental match in the approximately 29.5-day cycle. Only by combining the RAW sequence, lighting log, terminal connection, transmission records, and the adjustment pin were we able to identify the re-photography tonight and the leaker.
The moon on the dial is not a date stamp. But it creates a quiet sense of incongruity, signaling that two photos are not telling the same time.
Therefore, the fact that "it matches tonight's moon" alone does not mean it was recently operated.
What was crucial in this case was that the same piece, which was stopped near the new moon in the last record from the previous day, showed a phase near the full moon in the leaked photo, which was claimed to have been "taken the day before."
Even so, the display alone cannot rule out correction, image manipulation, or a coincidental match in the approximately 29.5-day cycle. Only by combining the RAW sequence, lighting log, terminal connection, transmission records, and the adjustment pin were we able to identify the re-photography tonight and the leaker.
The moon on the dial is not a date stamp. But it creates a quiet sense of incongruity, signaling that two photos are not telling the same time.
Moon Phase Lessons from the Case
- Mechanical reproduction of moon phase: In a common system, a 59-tooth disc with two moons advances one tooth per day.
- Average synodic month is approximately 29.53059 days: The difference from the traditional 29.5-day method accumulates over a long period.
- Display does not track if the watch stops: It does not automatically catch up for the stopped period even if restarted.
- Discrepancy ≠ malfunction: It is necessary to differentiate between stoppage, setting status, and normal mechanical error.
- High-precision mechanisms also exist: Not all moon phases have 59 teeth or the same precision.
- Correction procedures vary by model: Always follow the instruction manual for prohibited operating times and adjustment methods.
| Status | Display Concept | Key Points for Confirmation |
|---|---|---|
| Correctly set and running | Moon phase display automatically advances daily | No daily manual adjustment required |
| Stopped for a long period | Display remains at the stopped position | Correction based on the stopped period is required when reusing |
| Mismatched with actual moon phase | Multiple causes such as stopping, not being set, or mechanical error | Do not immediately assume a malfunction |
*This work is a fiction based on a "typical mechanical moon phase." The structure, display accuracy, correction method, and times to avoid operation vary depending on the model and caliber. Forcing adjustments during the time when the calendar mechanism is in the process of switching may damage the mechanism. Always follow the instruction manual or the guidance of an authorized service center or specialty store. The moon phase display alone cannot definitively determine the date and time of shooting or the person who operated it.
Key Deductions for This Case
- In the final photo from the previous day, the stopped watch showed a new moon phase.
- In the leaked photo, claimed to be "taken the day before," the same watch showed a full moon phase.
- The difference in moon phases became the starting point of the doubt, leading to verification of tonight's re-shoot using RAW sequence, lighting, connection, and transmission records.
- The adjustment pin and fibers, along with indentations around the collector, connected a person to the operation.
- When appraising complex mechanisms, not only the presence of functions but also operation, setting status, exterior, service history, and marketability are considered comprehensively.
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