Dr. Ito's Complete Dissection of Mechanical Watches! Vol. 55 ~ Gasoline Cars = Mechanical Watches? Similarities Between the Automotive and Watch Markets

This column discusses mechanical watches from an engineer's perspective. For the 55th installment, the topic is:

"Gasoline Cars = Mechanical Watches? Similarities Between the Automotive and Watch Markets"

I will be discussing this theme.

With global tightening of CO2 emission regulations and car manufacturers shifting to EVs, it is expected that new gasoline car sales will significantly decrease in the future. But will they disappear completely?

This time, I would like to focus on automobiles, which share many similarities with luxury watches.

The Current Position of Gasoline Cars

① Certain Decline in the New Car Market

Due to regulations in various countries (such as internal combustion engine regulations in Europe and NEV policies in China) and manufacturers' investments in electrification, new gasoline car sales are expected to decline significantly over the next 10-20 years.

• Urban areas → Shifting to EVs
• Legal regulations → Strengthening CO2 emission regulations
• Manufacturers → Concentrating development costs on EVs

In other words, the era of "choosing a gasoline car as a new car" is gradually coming to an end.

Mechanical watches are also a minority compared to quartz watches, which account for nearly 90% of the entire wristwatch market.

② "Existing Cars" Will Remain for a Long Time

Billions of internal combustion engine vehicles exist worldwide, and the infrastructure (gas stations, maintenance networks) is well-established. Considering charging environments, EV adoption is unlikely to accelerate rapidly in emerging countries.

Therefore, existing cars and those in the used car market are expected to continue running for at least 20-30 years.

Translated to mechanical watches, this is similar to their higher market share in regions where button-cell batteries are hard to come by.

③ Value as a Luxury Item Will Actually Increase

This is a particularly important perspective for us, luxury watch retailers.

• Engine sound, vibration, and operational feel
• Mechanical appeal (value as a machine)

These are difficult to replicate in EVs,
so sports cars and classic cars may increase in value as "luxury items."

In fact, there is already a trend of increasing rarity value for manual transmission cars, reappraisal of naturally aspirated engine cars, and expansion of the classic car market.

The sensation of winding the mainspring of a hand-wound watch and the feel of shifting gears in a well-made manual transmission car. There are commonalities here that appeal to men who love mechanics, aren't there?

Similarities Between Cars and Watches That Retain Asset Value

① Being the "Last of its Kind" (Rarity)

With the shift to EVs, the "moment of discontinuation" becomes the starting point of value.
Examples: Ferrari NA, Porsche naturally aspirated GT models, etc.

• The last NA (naturally aspirated) engine
• The last V12
• The last manual transmission option
  

These are similar to "final production numbers" or "last acrylic crystal models" in watches.

② Strong Brand and Model "Context"

It's important to be able to explain "why this car exists."

• Relationship with motorsport
• Historical lineage (e.g., 911, GT-R)
• Iconic models of the brand

It's the same with mechanical watches; models with a rich background are always strong.

③ Original Condition

• Unmodified
• Retained genuine parts
• Low mileage or appropriate usage history
• Transparent records and history

This is the same as "unpolished, full original, complete with accessories" for watches.

 ④ Timeless Design

Is the design able to withstand the test of time?

• Not overly dependent on trends
• Instantly recognizable silhouette
• Reflects the brand's essence

This is also similar to watches: an "instantly recognizable face" is powerful.

Summary

What did you think?

There's no doubt that electric or hybrid vehicles will become the mainstream for transportation.

However, just as mechanical watches, which nearly went extinct during the quartz crisis, made a comeback, I believe that gasoline-powered cars with high hobby value may continue to increase in value in the future. It's fun to explore commonalities between luxury watches and other genres and imagine the future this way!

I hope this article was informative for you and sparked some interest in luxury watches! Also, if you have any questions, please feel free to ask us directly, and we will be happy to answer them thoroughly. We look forward to your visit and inquiries.

Stay tuned for the next installment! See you then!