Dr. Ito's In-Depth Analysis of Mechanical Watches! Vol. 38 - The Relationship Between Luxury Watches and Trading Cards (Part 2)

Good evening everyone!

This column talks about mechanical watches from an engineer's perspective. This is the 38th installment, and it continues from the previous one.

"The Relationship Between the Luxury Watch Market and the Trading Card Market (Part 2)"

I will be talking about this topic here.

In the first part, we talked about the similarities between the two markets, but in the second part, we will talk about the differences and tips for enjoying your collection.

The Difference Between the Luxury Watch and Trading Card Markets

1. Timeline

The two markets have different "time axes" for asset values.

Luxury watches tend to retain their value over the long term and are often seen as stable assets spanning decades.

On the other hand, trading cards are characterized by large short-term fluctuations in demand and drastic price fluctuations.

However, even in the luxury watch market, there have been cases in the past where certain models or new products have experienced a significant price increase in the short term, only to then suddenly drop in value. Therefore, if you value value as a stable asset, we recommend choosing vintage or semi-vintage models, which have established value among luxury watches.

2. User demographics

While luxury watches are generally aimed at the wealthy and those conscious of their social status, trading cards have a wide appeal, from young people to the general public.

Culturally, watches are associated with status and practicality, while cards are rooted in fun and community.

This difference can be said to be reflected directly in the difference between market "stability" and "volatility."

If we compare it to the stock market, luxury watches would be like "stable stocks" that are recommended for long-term holding, or "large companies with decades of history." Trading cards, on the other hand, would be like "mega-ventures that just went public," with the potential for significant growth but also the risk of a major crash.

The only thing they have in common is that they have an overwhelming number of male fans. If you look into watch shops or card shops, you'll see that the customers are all men.

"Why spend millions on a watch when a smartphone is enough?" "There's no way I'd pay tens of thousands of yen for a game card." You may hear women lamenting these things, or perhaps some of you have actually heard them.

Daytona = Pikachu?

When collecting watches or cards, wouldn't it be more fun if you decided on a theme? For example, you could focus on collecting a specific model or cards from a certain era.

Let's look at a specific example: the Rolex Daytona and the Pokémon card Pikachu.

Both Rolex and Pokemon are highly popular in the market. It is no exaggeration to say that these two are the "faces of the brand," and they are known to have many enthusiastic fans, to the point that there are collectors who specialize in collecting them.

Both Daytona and Pikachu watches have one thing in common: even models and cards that are not particularly rare can be traded at high prices. Furthermore, rare and highly sought-after watches such as the "Hand-Wound Daytona Paul Newman Dial" and "Pikachu Illustrator" can fetch prices of tens to hundreds of millions of yen if in good condition.

The deciding factors for the price of both are "rarity," "condition," and "appraisal (originality)." In other words, the evaluation criteria are very similar, and at this level, customers are limited to a small number of wealthy individuals, which is also a common feature.

The difference is the speed at which their prices fluctuate. While Daytona watches have gradually increased in value over the course of decades, Pikachu watches have skyrocketed in value in the past few years due to the influence of social media and auctions. This shows the differences between markets.

This is the Ref. 116518LN, nicknamed "Pikachu" by some.

Summary: A new perspective on "collection investment"

Although luxury watches and trading cards originate from completely different cultures, they share commonalities such as rarity, the need for appraisal, and the existence of a secondary market, and as such are now being discussed under the new umbrella term "collection investment."

Luxury watches symbolize long-term asset preservation and status, while trading cards offer short-term returns and community. Both satisfy people's desire to own something and a sense of exclusivity.

In the coming age, investment and hobby options will become increasingly diverse. We may soon see a unique scene where "Daytona" and "Pikachu" will be discussed on the same level as stocks and real estate.

We hope that this article has been useful to you and has sparked even a little interest in luxury watches! If you have any questions, please feel free to ask us directly and we will be happy to answer them. We look forward to your visit and inquiries.

Please look forward to the next one!