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This article combines current news with luxury watches. The images and text used in the article are created using AI technology. The latest data refers to the published values as of May 2025.
Introduction - Reading the Current State of Geneva Auction XXI
Phillips "The Geneva Watch Auction: XXI" held in May 2025 featured a diverse lineup of bidders, from independent watchmakers to big fashion houses, and recorded total sales of approximately 40 million CHF (approximately 6.6 billion yen in Japanese currency). Rolex and Patek Philippe in particular continue to attract the attention of both investors and collectors, showing that the movement of watches as "assets" has taken root.
Topic 1: Rolex - The numbers that back up its "overwhelming brand power"
| Ranking | Model (Reference) | Estimate | Sold For |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cosmograph Daytona “Paul Newman Lemon” Ref.6264 | CHF 600'000 – 1'200'000 | CHF 825'500 |
| 2 | Pre-Daytona Ref.6238 | CHF 200'000 – 400'000 | CHF 533'400 |
| 3 | “Padellone” Moon-phase Ref.8171 | CHF 350'000 – 700'000 | CHF 508'000 |
| 4 | Cosmograph Daytona “Paul Newman” Ref.6239 | CHF 350'000 – 700'000 | CHF 508'000 |
| 5 | Day-Date Ref.6613 | CHF 100'000 – 200'000 | CHF 425'450 |
*Source: https://www.phillips.com/
Beginner's Guide
- Rolex is attractive because of its durability and high resale value. For beginners, you should consider the Oyster Perpetual or Datejust series.
- The "Paul Newman" dial continues to become increasingly rare and valuable due to its popularity with the movie actor Paul Newman.
- The fact that many winning bids exceed estimates (preliminary forecast prices) is proof that we live in a world where demand exceeds supply.
Collector's Insights
- Ref.6264 Lemon is a combination of MK1 tachymeter scale and tropicalized sub-dials. It was offered by the family of the original owner and the sharp case is highly praised.
- The Moonphase Ref. 8171 “Padellone” comes in a very rare pink gold case and comes with an original guarantee. With this result, it has exceeded 500kCHF and will be the benchmark for pricing from now on.
- Ref.6613 is the first generation day-date, and its combination of Arabic calendar, circular satin-finished dial, and bezel diamond is extremely rare. Over the past three years, the average auction growth rate has been +18%/year , outperforming the S&P500.
*Images generated by AI
Topic 2: Patek Philippe - Why it's called an "heirloom"
| Ranking | Model (Reference) | Estimate | Sold For |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3448 “Padellone – The only one known” | CHF 2'000'000 – 4'000'000 | CHF 2'722'000 |
| 2 | 5104P-001 Minute-Repeater Perpetual | CHF 300'000 – 600'000 | CHF 635'000 |
| 3 | 3974 Minute-Repeater Perpetual | CHF 250'000 – 500'000 | CHF 558'800 |
| 4 | 5004R-018 Split-Seconds Chronograph | CHF 200'000 – 400'000 | CHF 508'000 |
| 5 | 5074P-001 Minute-Repeater Perpetual | CHF 300'000 – 600'000 | CHF 482'600 |
*Source: https://www.phillips.com/
Tips for beginners
- "3448 Padellone" is Patek Philippe's first automatic perpetual calendar. It comes with an overhaul record , the only one in the world.
- A common theme for Patek Philippe is that many of their models are more expensive in the secondary market than in the catalog . The reversal phenomenon of used watches being more expensive than new ones is proof that rarity is the source of value.
- The Minute-Repeater mechanism is a complex mechanism that tells the time by sound . Due to its complexity, it is said that fewer than 50 are produced per year, making it a popular investment asset.
Considerations for Collectors
- The 5104P was the first Grand Complication to feature a sapphire transparent dial. The design concept of "showing off" the complex mechanism was an iconic presence of Patek in the 2000s, and it is estimated that less than 10 pieces were produced per year, with less than 100 made in total.
- The 3974 R27Q caliber is the ancestor of the current 5750 Advanced Research minute repeater, achieving an average volume of 75 dB without an acoustic soundboard.
- The winning bid for 3448 exceeded the estimate by 36% . At the exchange rate (CHF/JPY = 175 JPY, closing price on May 10, 2025), the total was approximately 476 million yen.
*Images generated by AI
Topic 3: The day clocks surpassed watches – Top 5 overall auction results
| Ranking | Lot/Model | Estimate | Sold For |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FPJourne × THA for Breguet Pendule Sympathique N°1 | In excess of CHF 1'000'000 | CHF 5'505'000 |
| 2 | Cartier Portico Mystery Clock | In excess of CHF 2'000'000 | CHF 3'932'000 |
| 3 | Patek Philippe Ref.3448 “Padellone” | CHF 2'000'000 – 4'000'000 | CHF 2'722'000 |
| 4 | FPJourne Tourbillon Souverain | CHF 250'000 – 500'000 | CHF 1'633'000 |
| 5 | A. Lange & Söhne Grande Complication | CHF 500'000 – 1'000'000 | CHF 1'168'400 |
*Source: https://www.phillips.com/
Highlights
- The Pendule Sympathique N°1 is a revolutionary clock that synchronizes chronometer pocket watches. The winning bid of 5.5M CHF set a new record for the company's clocks.
- Cartier's Mystery Clock is a legacy of the golden age of Art Deco in the 1920s. The structure of the hands in the center of the dial "floating in the air" has fascinated collectors, and in recent years the price has increased by +20% per year .
- The independent FPJourne is going strong. The top spot in the watch category was taken by Tourbillon Souverain, with an average auction ratio (auction price divided by upper estimate) of 3.3 .
*Images generated by AI
Future Outlook - The Trio of Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Supply
As of May 2025, the Swiss franc is hitting a historic high against the yen (CHF/JPY = 175 yen). Unless the interest rate differential narrows, domestic retail prices will have room to rise. Meanwhile, Rolex has announced that it will increase its production capacity by approximately 30% from 2024 to 2025, but it is said that the average delivery time for Daytona and professional models is still more than two years. There are no signs of the supply shortage being resolved, especially for popular models, and secondary distribution prices are expected to remain high.
Proposal from Commit Ginza
- [Beginners]
We recommend the entry-level models, such as the Oyster Perpetual, Datejust, and Explorer, in the 1 to 2 million yen price range . They are less likely to depreciate in value and have low maintenance costs. - [Collector customers]
Complex mechanisms and independent brands (e.g. FP Journe, Philippe Dufour) will continue to be a blue ocean. There are also cases where a return of over +50% has been achieved in 5 years by holding condition A for a long period of time. - If the weak yen is corrected, the benefits of purchasing from the domestic market will increase.
*Images generated by AI
Summary: Watches become “timeless assets”
Geneva Auction XXI reaffirmed the strong popularity of Rolex and Patek Philippe, while at the same time opening up new price ranges for clocks and independent brands. For beginners, we want to find a watch that they will love. For collectors, we want to balance the joy of owning and future value. Commit Ginza will fully support you in choosing a timeless asset by providing appropriate appraisals using our abundant inventory and data.
